Probability in Plain English
Probability is just favorable outcomes รท total outcomes โ a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). A coin flip is 0.5, a specific lottery ticket is roughly 1 in 300 million. Everything else is built from that one idea.
The Four Rules on This Page
- Simple: P(A) = favorable รท total.
- Complement: P(not A) = 1 โ P(A) โ sometimes the โnotโ is easier to compute.
- AND (independent): multiply โ P(A)รP(B). Two coin flips both heads: 0.5 ร 0.5 = 0.25.
- OR (independent): add, then subtract the overlap โ P(A)+P(B)โP(A)รP(B).
The Classic Trap
People add probabilities for AND (โ10% and 10% = 20%โ) โ wrong. Two independent 10% events both happening is 0.1 ร 0.1 = 1%, not 20%. Multiplication shrinks; addition grows. When in doubt, the calculator keeps you honest.
Counting the outcomes first? Our factorial calculator handles permutations and combinations.